ANALYSIS — Published June 9, 2026 · By Roe Baynes · 4 Min Read
For our complete coverage of the 2026 California primary results including the LA mayor race, visit baynesworld.com
The California gubernatorial primary on June 2 has produced one of the most unusual battle-for-second-place storylines of the entire 2026 election cycle. Democrat Xavier Becerra has officially advanced to the November general election. The second spot — and the question of whether a Republican will face Becerra in a Democratic state or whether two Democrats will face off — remains undecided a full week after election day.
With approximately 65% of the expected vote counted as of Friday evening, the numbers stood as follows: Xavier Becerra (D) at 26.7%, Steve Hilton (R) at 26.4%, Tom Steyer (D) at 21%. Becerra and Hilton are running neck-and-neck for the top spot with Steyer trailing by roughly five points. Decision Desk HQ projected Becerra as the top finisher Thursday based on the trajectory of late mail-in ballots, which have consistently favored Becerra over Hilton as the count progresses.
The Three Candidates
Xavier Becerra (Democrat) — Former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Biden, former California Attorney General, and former U.S. Representative. Becerra brings more than 35 years of public office experience and positioned himself as the most institutionally qualified candidate in a crowded field. His support surged after former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race in April following multiple sexual assault and misconduct allegations against him. Becerra has vowed to maintain California’s role as a chief antagonist to the Trump administration.
Steve Hilton (Republican) — Trump-endorsed former Fox News host who has consolidated support from California’s conservative voters. Hilton has vowed to cut income taxes, slash environmental regulations, and boost oil drilling in the state. “Change is coming to California, and it’s long overdue,” Hilton told supporters in Huntington Beach on election night to chants of “USA.” His campaign represents the most credible Republican gubernatorial bid in California in over a decade — though Republicans have not won a statewide California race since 2006.
Tom Steyer (Democrat) — Billionaire climate activist and self-funded progressive candidate who poured approximately $215 million of his own money into his campaign. Despite the massive spending, Steyer has not been able to break into the top two as the count has progressed.
What Happened on Election Night
The early returns on Tuesday night had Hilton in the lead. With 56% of votes counted, Hilton was at 28% and Becerra at 26% — a 2-point Republican lead in deep-blue California. The same pattern that played out in the LA mayor’s race has now played out in the gubernatorial primary as well: as additional mail-in ballots are processed throughout the week, Becerra has slowly overtaken Hilton.
By Thursday Becerra had moved into first place. By Friday evening the gap stood at just 0.3 percentage points with Becerra ahead. The trajectory of the remaining uncounted ballots is expected to widen Becerra’s lead as the count continues — though Hilton remains in striking distance for the second runoff spot ahead of Steyer.
Both Katie Porter and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa conceded the race early on election night as initial returns made clear they would not advance.
The Unusual Dynamic Heading to November
The race for second creates a genuinely consequential split:
If Hilton finishes second, California will see its first credible Republican gubernatorial candidate in over a decade compete in a general election. While California has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2006 reelection — and Trump lost the state to Kamala Harris by 18 points in 2024 — Hilton’s path forward depends on building a coalition of Republicans, conservative-leaning independents, and disaffected Democrats frustrated with the direction of the state.
If Steyer finishes second, California will see something unusual under its jungle primary system — two Democrats facing each other in the general election with no Republican option on the ballot. This dynamic has played out before in California Senate races but rarely in high-profile gubernatorial contests. The race would become a referendum on the direction of the California Democratic Party — Becerra representing the institutional center-left and Steyer representing the progressive billionaire-funded wing of the party.
The current vote count favors Hilton holding on to second place by approximately 5 percentage points. But California’s count is famously slow — official results are not due to the Secretary of State until July 3, nearly a month after election day — and Becerra’s strength in late mail-in ballots suggests Steyer could still close the gap if his late ballots break similarly. The state’s election integrity questions that emerged from the LA mayor’s race apply equally here. Republicans tend to lead California races on election night and then lose those leads as late mail-in ballots are counted. Hilton currently sits in exactly that vulnerable position.
The November Outlook
Regardless of which candidate emerges in the second slot, California remains a structural blue state heading into November. Becerra enters the general election as a heavy favorite under any matchup scenario.
Becerra vs. Hilton — Becerra is favored heavily. The Cook Political Report rates the seat as Likely Democratic. Hilton would need to peel away significant numbers of Democratic and independent voters to win. The closest Republican statewide performance in recent California history was Brian Dahle’s 2022 run against Newsom — Dahle lost by 18 points. Hilton’s chances depend on running significantly stronger than that benchmark.
Becerra vs. Steyer — In a Democrat-vs-Democrat matchup the race would be unpredictable. Steyer has unlimited self-funded resources and would likely run a progressive insurgent campaign against Becerra’s institutional Democratic credentials. Polling suggests Becerra has stronger broad support among California Democrats, but Steyer’s billion-dollar checkbook and the smaller turnout typical of intra-party general elections create real uncertainty.
The most likely outcome remains Becerra winning the November general election by a comfortable margin against either opponent. Whether that margin is closer to a 10-point race against Hilton or something more competitive in a Democrat-vs-Democrat contest will depend on which candidate emerges in the next two weeks as the count completes.
Voter Turnout Note
One particularly striking data point from this primary: voter turnout in California’s primary election as of Thursday morning sat at just 23% according to the Secretary of State’s office. This is far below historical norms — the biggest turnout in California history was 57% for the 2008 presidential primary, and even the 2016 primary saw 47% turnout. The 23% figure suggests significant disengagement from California Democratic voters in particular, who historically dominate state turnout. Whether that disengagement carries into November or whether the high stakes of the gubernatorial general election drives turnout back up will be one of the defining questions of California’s 2026 cycle.
Watch the count over the next two weeks. By the time the official certification deadline arrives on July 3 we will know definitively whether California has a competitive Republican gubernatorial candidate for the first time in nearly two decades, or whether the state has produced an all-Democrat general election that will be decided entirely within the party’s internal politics.
For full coverage of the LA mayor primary results from the same June 2 election, read our companion article → LA Mayor Primary Stunner: Spencer Pratt Loses Lead to Nithya Raman
