🔴 UPDATE — May 19, 2026: In another blow to the Washington establishment, President Trump has officially endorsed Ken Paxton in the May 26 runoff — dealing a potentially fatal blow to John Cornyn’s Senate career. For the full breaking news debrief click here → Trump Endorses Paxton: The Swamp Strikes Out in Texas
QUICK READ — Published May 18, 2026 · By Roe Baynes · 4 Min Read
For full in-depth analysis, candidate breakdowns, polling data, and opinion read our complete coverage here → Texas Senate Race 2026: The Lone Star Showdown
After the recent ousting of four-term incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy, the eyes of the nation now turn west to Texas, where another Republican civil war is still very much underway.
The Primary — March 3, 2026
No candidate cleared the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff in the March 3 Republican primary, sending four-term incumbent John Cornyn (41.9%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (40.7%) into a May 26 showdown. Third-place finisher Congressman Wesley Hunt (13.5%) has refused to endorse either candidate, saying he will follow President Trump’s lead. The race has already made history — total spending across both parties hit nearly $99 million, making it the most expensive Senate primary in Texas history and second only to the 2022 Arizona race nationally. Cornyn’s side alone accounted for nearly $59 million — the establishment outspent the grassroots challenger nearly two-to-one and still couldn’t close the deal.
Texas: Senate Republican Primary
John Cornyn: The Swamp’s Last Stand in Texas
Cornyn has been in public office for over 40 years and is now seeking a fifth Senate term — if re-elected he will be 80 years old when it ends. Branded a RINO by the MAGA base, he has repeatedly undermined Trump dating back to 2016, calling him an “albatross,” labeling Fauci a “national treasure,” and declaring Trump “less relevant all the time” as recently as 2022 — a year before Trump won the 2024 election by 22 points in Texas. His Conservative Review Liberty Score is an F at 54% — meaning on the votes that matter most to constitutional conservatives he sides against them nearly half the time. On the positive side he authored a key provision of the Laken Riley Act and secured billions in Hurricane Harvey disaster relief. On the negative side he was the lead Republican architect of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act — the most significant federal gun restriction legislation in a generation — a move that has never been forgiven by Second Amendment advocates in the most armed state in the country. His top donor sectors over his career include defense contractors, big pharma, and Wall Street — a profile that looks far more like a Washington institution than a Texas conservative.
Ken Paxton: The MAGA Choice With Serious Baggage
Paxton entered the race in April 2025 and immediately scrambled the field, positioning himself as everything Cornyn is not — combative, uncompromising, and fully MAGA-aligned. As AG he led aggressive legal battles against Biden administration overreach on open borders, vaccine mandates, and transgender policies for minors. After finishing second in the primary he refused to exit the race unless the Senate eliminated the filibuster to pass the SAVE Act — drawing a hard line at exactly the moment Cornyn was conveniently reversing his own long-standing filibuster defense with Trump’s endorsement dangling in front of him. The contrast was not lost on primary voters. However Paxton’s baggage is real and significant — a securities fraud indictment from 2014 that never went to trial, and a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-led Texas House on charges of abuse of power, bribery, and obstruction of justice, from which he was acquitted with Trump publicly intervening on his behalf. His ex-wife filed for divorce on “biblical grounds” during the proceedings. Paxton calls it all a political witch hunt — but 24% of Cornyn voters say they would vote Democrat in November if Paxton wins the nomination, a number that should alarm every Texas Republican.
The Runoff — May 26: Paxton the Favorite
Texas Public Opinion Research shows Paxton leading 48%-40% with 11% undecided. The University of Houston poll found Hunt’s voters breaking toward Paxton by a 19-point margin — those were never Cornyn voters to begin with. Critically, polling found that even a Trump endorsement of Cornyn would not close the gap — but a Trump endorsement of Paxton would push his lead to 55%-35%. Trump has stayed silent precisely because he does not want to attach his name to a losing candidate and weaken whoever emerges heading into a surprisingly competitive general election. All current polling and the trajectory of Hunt’s voters point to Paxton as the clear runoff favorite.
The General Election: Enter James Talarico
Whoever survives May 26 will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, 36 — and Republicans should not be sleeping on this man. Talarico won his party’s primary by defeating the higher-profile Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. He is articulate, polished, and frequently compared to a young Barack Obama — a comparison he has done nothing to discourage given Obama’s mentorship and public support. His pitch to voters is surgical: both your candidates are corrupt or captured by Washington — I am neither. It is working. Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico leading Cornyn 44%-41% and Paxton 46%-41%, with independents breaking for Talarico by over 20 points against both Republicans. Polymarket gives Democrats a 47% chance of flipping the seat — up from just 30% in early March. The Cook Political Report still rates it Likely Republican, and the structural fundamentals still favor the GOP — Trump carried Texas by 14 points in 2024 and no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. But the gap is closing faster than anyone expected.
My 2 Cents
Paxton is not my ideal candidate — his legal baggage is real and a decade-old securities fraud indictment is not a good look. But he is a clear improvement over Cornyn, and I am exhausted by the Washington establishment and the career politicians who spend decades delivering for pharmaceutical lobbyists and defense contractors while sending press releases home to constituents. Talarico concerns me deeply — he is the kind of politician who says exactly what each audience wants to hear, and his habit of invoking Scripture to justify positions on illegal immigration and abortion I find genuinely dishonest. Claiming the Bible affirms a woman’s right to choose is, in my view, preposterous — the sanctity of innocent life is woven throughout Scripture and sits at the core of virtually every major religious tradition worldwide. I prefer Paxton over Cornyn — but I would take Cornyn over Talarico without hesitation. The lesser of two evils keeps rearing its ugly head. This race is a bellwether for Trump’s agenda and the future direction of the Republican Party. Watch it closely. It will tell us a lot about where our Country is headed.
For the full breakdown including the secret Senate majority leader ballot, Cornyn’s complete legislative record, Liberty Score analysis, and detailed general election odds — read our complete analysis: Texas Senate Race 2026: The Lone Star Showdown
